InCred Equities - National Aluminium Co Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	131,492	143,090	142,877	145,607
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	28,729	41,773	44,164	44,837
Net Profit (Rsm)	20,600	27,320	28,933	29,254
Core EPS (Rs)	9.4	14.6	15.5	15.7
Core EPS Growth	12.9%	56.6%	5.9%	1.1%
FD Core P/E (x)	21.76	16.40	15.49	15.32
DPS (Rs)	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5
Dividend Yield	1.87%	1.87%	1.87%	1.87%
EV/EBITDA (x)	14.66	9.86	9.05	8.64
P/FCFE (x)	62.67	25.18	22.14	21.48
Net Gearing	(18.6%)	(22.2%)	(26.1%)	(29.5%)
P/BV (x)	3.08	2.72	2.42	2.18
ROE	12.5%	17.6%	16.5%	15.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	131,492	143,090	142,877	145,607
Gross Profit	105,033	118,381	117,685	119,923
Operating EBITDA	28,729	41,773	44,164	44,837
Depreciation And Amortisation	(7,497)	(7,871)	(8,265)	(8,678)
Operating EBIT	21,233	33,902	35,899	36,159
Financial Income/(Expense)	(172)	(35)	(35)	(35)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	2,507	2,658	2,817	2,986
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	23,568	36,524	38,681	39,110
Exceptional Items	4,268
Pre-tax Profit	27,836	36,524	38,681	39,110
Taxation	(7,236)	(9,204)	(9,748)	(9,856)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	20,600	27,320	28,933	29,254
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	20,600	27,320	28,933	29,254
Recurring Net Profit	17,441	27,320	28,933	29,254
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	17,441	27,320	28,933	29,254

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	28,729	41,773	44,164	44,837
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(84)	(430)	8	(101)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	7,384
Other Operating Cashflow	(2,316)	1,319	1,009	587
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(172)	(35)	(35)	(35)
Tax Paid	(6,348)	(9,204)	(9,748)	(9,856)
Cashflow From Operations	27,193	33,423	35,398	35,432
Capex	(15,605)	(17,000)	(17,000)	(17,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries	185
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(4,584)	1,374	1,843	2,434
Cash Flow From Investing	(20,005)	(15,626)	(15,157)	(14,566)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(37)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(7,347)	(8,393)	(8,393)	(8,393)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(3)	(35)	(35)	(35)
Cash Flow From Financing	(7,387)	(8,428)	(8,428)	(8,428)
Total Cash Generated	(198)	9,369	11,813	12,438
Free Cashflow To Equity	7,151	17,797	20,241	20,866
Free Cashflow To Firm	7,361	17,832	20,276	20,901

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	27,481	36,866	48,680	61,118
Total Debtors	1,535	1,670	1,668	1,700
Inventories	18,297	19,911	19,882	20,261
Total Other Current Assets	14,002	13,986	13,986	13,986
Total Current Assets	61,315	72,434	84,215	97,065
Fixed Assets	119,558	128,687	137,422	145,744
Total Investments	3,523	3,523	3,523	3,523
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets	9,791	9,791	9,791	9,791
Total Non-current Assets	132,871	142,000	150,735	159,057
Short-term Debt	392	392	392	392
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	14,963	16,282	16,258	16,569
Other Current Liabilities	16,423	16,423	16,423	16,423
Total Current Liabilities	31,777	33,097	33,072	33,383
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	6,573	6,573	6,573	6,573
Total Non-current Liabilities	6,573	6,573	6,573	6,573
Total Provisions	10,120	10,120	10,120	10,120
Total Liabilities	48,469	49,789	49,765	50,076
Shareholders Equity	145,717	164,644	185,185	206,046
Minority Interests
Total Equity	145,717	164,644	185,185	206,046

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	(7.8%)	8.8%	(0.1%)	1.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	17.4%	45.4%	5.7%	1.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	21.8%	29.2%	30.9%	30.8%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	14.52	19.56	25.89	32.56
BVPS (Rs)	78.13	88.28	99.29	110.48
Gross Interest Cover	123.37	961.91	1,018.58	1,025.95
Effective Tax Rate	26.0%	25.2%	25.2%	25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	51.4%	30.7%	29.0%	28.7%
Accounts Receivables Days	3.40	4.09	4.26	4.22
Inventory Days	253.14	282.21	288.28	285.24
Accounts Payables Days	190.35	230.78	235.74	233.25
ROIC (%)	12.8%	19.2%	19.0%	18.0%
ROCE (%)	14.3%	20.7%	19.5%	17.7%
Return On Average Assets	8.9%	13.4%	12.9%	11.9%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611549 pratyush.kamal@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg