InCred Equities - Asian Paints Limited

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	339,056	354,756	385,154	418,440
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	60,062	64,316	70,156	76,229
Net Profit (Rsm)	36,672	42,840	47,205	51,967
Core EPS (Rs)	41.0	44.7	49.2	54.2
Core EPS Growth	(28.1%)	9.1%	10.2%	10.1%
FD Core P/E (x)	66.60	57.01	51.74	47.00
DPS (Rs)	23.8	23.9	25.9	28.2
Dividend Yield	0.94%	0.94%	1.02%	1.11%
EV/EBITDA (x)	40.49	37.81	34.57	31.73
P/FCFE (x)	91.64	101.83	75.60	71.91
Net Gearing	(8.7%)	(8.1%)	(10.3%)	(11.7%)
P/BV (x)	12.59	11.51	10.50	9.56
ROE	20.6%	21.1%	21.2%	21.3%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	339,056	354,756	385,154	418,440
Gross Profit	143,898	150,826	164,228	178,594
Operating EBITDA	60,062	64,316	70,156	76,229
Depreciation And Amortisation	(10,263)	(11,937)	(12,323)	(12,405)
Operating EBIT	49,799	52,379	57,832	63,824
Financial Income/(Expense)	3,456	3,458	3,881	4,217
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	53,255	55,837	61,713	68,040
Exceptional Items	(3,631)
Pre-tax Profit	49,624	55,837	61,713	68,040
Taxation	(13,934)	(13,797)	(15,509)	(17,074)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	35,690	42,040	46,205	50,967
Minority Interests	982	800	1,000	1,000
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	36,672	42,840	47,205	51,967
Recurring Net Profit	39,284	42,840	47,205	51,967
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	39,284	42,840	47,205	51,967

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	60,062	64,316	70,156	76,229
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(1,168)	(4,291)	(523)	(3,707)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,270)	(2,653)	(2,552)	(2,552)
Tax Paid	(13,934)	(13,797)	(15,509)	(17,074)
Cashflow From Operations	42,690	43,575	51,572	52,896
Capex	(18,556)	(25,700)	(25,700)	(25,700)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	4,358	6,111	6,433	6,769
Cash Flow From Investing	(14,198)	(19,589)	(19,267)	(18,931)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(1,841)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(22,840)	(22,918)	(24,800)	(27,050)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(5,197)	(682)	(682)	(682)
Cash Flow From Financing	(29,878)	(23,600)	(25,482)	(27,732)
Total Cash Generated	(1,385)	386	6,823	6,233
Free Cashflow To Equity	26,652	23,986	32,305	33,965
Free Cashflow To Firm	30,763	26,640	34,857	36,517

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	40,269	40,655	47,479	53,711
Total Debtors	43,224	52,197	58,691	64,064
Inventories	67,193	63,824	60,978	66,346
Total Other Current Assets	34,023	34,023	34,023	34,023
Total Current Assets	184,709	190,700	201,171	218,144
Fixed Assets	102,550	116,313	129,690	142,985
Total Investments	14,798	14,798	14,798	14,798
Intangible Assets	2,196	2,196	2,196	2,196
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	119,544	133,307	146,684	159,978
Short-term Debt	9,074	9,074	9,074	9,074
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	72,922	74,414	77,361	84,200
Other Current Liabilities	672
Total Current Liabilities	82,667	83,488	86,434	93,273
Total Long-term Debt	13,829	13,829	13,829	13,829
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	13,829	13,829	13,829	13,829
Total Provisions	7,837	7,659	7,838	8,032
Total Liabilities	104,334	104,976	108,102	115,135
Shareholders Equity	193,998	212,138	232,561	255,495
Minority Interests	6,592	6,892	7,192	7,492
Total Equity	200,591	219,031	239,753	262,988

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	(4.5%)	4.6%	8.6%	8.6%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(20.8%)	7.1%	9.1%	8.7%
Operating EBITDA Margin	17.7%	18.1%	18.2%	18.2%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	18.11	18.51	25.62	32.12
BVPS (Rs)	202.25	221.16	242.45	266.36
Gross Interest Cover	21.94	19.74	22.66	25.01
Effective Tax Rate	28.1%	24.7%	25.1%	25.1%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	56.7%	53.5%	52.5%	52.1%
Accounts Receivables Days	49.59	49.09	52.54	53.54
Inventory Days	118.23	117.25	103.10	96.88
Accounts Payables Days	137.29	131.85	125.38	122.93
ROIC (%)	28.4%	27.0%	27.8%	28.3%
ROCE (%)	22.7%	22.7%	23.1%	23.5%
Return On Average Assets	11.9%	12.3%	12.6%	12.9%

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg