InCred Equities - Asian Paints Limited

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	354,947	339,955	356,261	386,779
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	75,850	60,764	64,678	70,216
Net Profit (Rsm)	54,602	43,090	45,671	49,469
Core EPS (Rs)	56.9	44.9	47.6	51.6
Core EPS Growth	31.8%	(21.1%)	6.0%	8.3%
FD Core P/E (x)	41.27	52.30	49.34	45.55
DPS (Rs)	32.0	24.4	25.9	27.7
Dividend Yield	1.36%	1.04%	1.10%	1.18%
EV/EBITDA (x)	29.56	36.87	34.60	31.90
P/FCFE (x)	78.65	85.79	78.93	87.35
Net Gearing	(9.3%)	(9.5%)	(10.0%)	(8.6%)
P/BV (x)	12.03	10.97	10.04	9.19
ROE	31.5%	21.9%	21.3%	21.1%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	354,947	339,955	356,261	386,779
Gross Profit	154,045	141,540	148,799	161,760
Operating EBITDA	75,850	60,764	64,678	70,216
Depreciation And Amortisation	(8,530)	(9,650)	(10,279)	(11,007)
Operating EBIT	67,320	51,113	54,399	59,209
Financial Income/(Expense)	4,828	4,860	5,270	5,628
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	72,148	55,973	59,670	64,836
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	72,148	55,973	59,670	64,836
Taxation	(17,901)	(13,483)	(14,798)	(16,367)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	54,247	42,490	44,871	48,469
Minority Interests	355	600	800	1,000
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	54,602	43,090	45,671	49,469
Recurring Net Profit	54,602	43,090	45,671	49,469
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	54,602	43,090	45,671	49,469

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	75,850	60,764	64,678	70,216
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	891	(172)	(899)	(7,979)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,052)	(2,432)	(2,512)	(2,612)
Tax Paid	(17,901)	(13,483)	(14,798)	(16,367)
Cashflow From Operations	56,788	44,676	46,470	43,259
Capex	(37,172)	(25,700)	(25,700)	(25,700)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	3,618	7,292	7,782	8,239
Cash Flow From Investing	(33,555)	(18,408)	(17,918)	(17,461)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	5,418
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(30,658)	(23,440)	(24,867)	(26,554)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	6,315	(682)	(682)	(682)
Cash Flow From Financing	(18,925)	(24,122)	(25,549)	(27,236)
Total Cash Generated	4,309	2,146	3,003	(1,439)
Free Cashflow To Equity	28,651	26,268	28,551	25,798
Free Cashflow To Firm	25,285	28,700	31,063	28,409

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	42,874	45,020	48,023	46,584
Total Debtors	48,908	48,267	51,729	58,171
Inventories	59,234	55,867	56,143	60,565
Total Other Current Assets	35,696	35,696	35,696	35,696
Total Current Assets	186,713	184,850	191,590	201,016
Fixed Assets	94,258	110,308	125,729	140,422
Total Investments	13,845	13,845	13,845	13,845
Intangible Assets	4,192	4,192	4,192	4,192
Total Other Non-Current Assets		467	486	525
Total Non-current Assets	112,295	128,812	144,252	158,983
Short-term Debt	13,247	13,247	13,247	13,247
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	73,888	70,211	72,990	75,749
Other Current Liabilities	625
Total Current Liabilities	87,760	83,458	86,237	88,996
Total Long-term Debt	11,497	11,497	11,497	11,497
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	11,497	11,497	11,497	11,497
Total Provisions	6,139	6,102	6,182	6,347
Total Liabilities	105,396	101,057	103,915	106,839
Shareholders Equity	187,283	205,351	224,373	245,306
Minority Interests	6,954	7,254	7,554	7,854
Total Equity	194,237	212,605	231,927	253,160

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	2.9%	(4.2%)	4.8%	8.6%
Operating EBITDA Growth	21.2%	(19.9%)	6.4%	8.6%
Operating EBITDA Margin	21.4%	17.9%	18.2%	18.2%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	18.90	21.14	24.27	22.77
BVPS (Rs)	195.25	214.09	233.92	255.74
Gross Interest Cover	32.81	21.02	21.66	22.67
Effective Tax Rate	24.8%	24.1%	24.8%	25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	56.1%	54.4%	54.4%	53.7%
Accounts Receivables Days	49.00	52.17	51.22	51.86
Inventory Days	110.23	105.87	98.53	94.65
Accounts Payables Days	128.71	132.54	125.97	120.63
ROIC (%)	40.1%	27.7%	27.1%	26.5%
ROCE (%)	33.7%	22.8%	22.5%	22.6%
Return On Average Assets	17.8%	12.3%	12.2%	12.3%

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg