InCred Equities - Hindustan Petroleum Corp.

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	4,330,902	3,949,762	4,367,626	4,662,199
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	170,006	197,468	221,566	223,317
Net Profit (Rsm)	67,357	104,719	123,956	137,525
Core EPS (Rs)	31.7	49.2	58.3	64.6
Core EPS Growth	(57.9%)	55.5%	18.4%	10.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	12.60	8.10	6.84	6.17
DPS (Rs)	2.5	2.5	2.5
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)	7.39	6.08	5.21	4.84
P/FCFE (x)	13.55	10.92	12.26	7.81
Net Gearing	123.0%	108.6%	97.6%	80.8%
P/BV (x)	1.66	1.46	1.27	1.11
ROE	13.7%	19.2%	19.9%	19.2%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	4,330,902	3,949,762	4,367,626	4,662,199
Gross Profit	392,073	424,305	459,198	474,078
Operating EBITDA	170,006	197,468	221,566	223,317
Depreciation And Amortisation	(61,541)	(68,863)	(74,306)	(79,748)
Operating EBIT	108,465	128,605	147,260	143,570
Financial Income/(Expense)	(12,776)	(14,385)	(13,713)	(12,435)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	(4,494)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	91,195	114,220	133,547	131,134
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	91,195	114,220	133,547	131,134
Taxation	(22,642)	(28,783)	(33,654)	(33,046)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	68,553	85,436	99,893	98,088
Minority Interests	(1,196)	19,282	24,063	39,437
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	67,357	104,719	123,956	137,525
Recurring Net Profit	67,357	104,719	123,956	137,525
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	67,357	104,719	123,956	137,525

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	170,006	197,468	221,566	223,317
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	(61,600)	22,103	(1,683)	20,432
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	30,018	30,905	31,142	30,822
Tax Paid	3,854	(22,510)	(27,067)	(26,130)
Cashflow From Operations	142,277	227,965	223,958	248,442
Capex	(95,793)	(105,793)	(105,793)	(105,793)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(9,773)	(54,473)	(58,965)	(34,034)
Cash Flow From Investing	(105,566)	(160,267)	(164,758)	(139,827)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	25,910	10,000	10,000
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(23,363)	(34,175)	(39,957)	(39,235)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(43,930)	(36,412)	(36,952)	(36,952)
Cash Flow From Financing	(41,382)	(60,586)	(66,909)	(76,187)
Total Cash Generated	(4,671)	7,112	(7,710)	32,428
Free Cashflow To Equity	62,621	77,698	69,199	108,615
Free Cashflow To Firm	6,693	36,794	28,057	77,792

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	35,063	42,175	34,466	66,893
Total Debtors	117,807	105,044	113,834	120,297
Inventories	383,253	345,220	374,107	391,352
Total Other Current Assets	40,926	41,340	41,486	41,803
Total Current Assets	577,048	533,779	563,893	620,345
Fixed Assets	847,674	934,604	976,092	1,012,137
Total Investments	417,290	426,573	480,636	510,072
Intangible Assets	14,438	14,438	14,438	14,438
Total Other Non-Current Assets	90,996	91,693	92,405	93,131
Total Non-current Assets	1,370,398	1,467,308	1,563,570	1,629,779
Short-term Debt	317,781	327,781	337,781	337,781
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	298,008	258,731	278,232	289,198
Other Current Liabilities	346,988	352,701	358,600	364,693
Total Current Liabilities	962,777	939,213	974,613	991,672
Total Long-term Debt	346,508	346,508	346,508	346,508
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	47,609	47,996	48,388	48,783
Total Non-current Liabilities	394,116	394,504	394,896	395,291
Total Provisions	79,110	85,383	91,969	98,885
Total Liabilities	1,436,004	1,419,100	1,461,477	1,485,848
Shareholders Equity	511,443	581,987	665,986	764,276
Minority Interests
Total Equity	511,443	581,987	665,986	764,276

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	(0.8%)	(8.8%)	10.6%	6.7%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(32.5%)	16.2%	12.2%	0.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	3.9%	5.0%	5.1%	4.8%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(295.71)	(297.07)	(305.39)	(290.15)
BVPS (Rs)	240.36	273.51	312.99	359.18
Gross Interest Cover	3.22	3.53	3.99	3.89
Effective Tax Rate	24.8%	25.2%	25.2%	25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days	8.89	10.30	9.15	9.16
Inventory Days	33.61	37.71	33.59	33.36
Accounts Payables Days	26.46	28.82	25.07	24.73
ROIC (%)	4.6%	11.3%	11.5%	14.1%
ROCE (%)	9.0%	9.9%	10.6%	9.6%
Return On Average Assets	4.2%	5.2%	5.7%	5.4%

(91) 2241611549 pratyush.kamal@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg