InCred Equities - GAIL India

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	1,456,683	1,332,285	1,363,952	1,436,532
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	73,731	142,963	157,408	178,448
Net Profit (Rsm)	57,900	99,064	110,191	125,281
Core EPS (Rs)	6.8	13.1	14.7	17.0
Core EPS Growth	(72.0%)	91.4%	13.0%	15.6%
FD Core P/E (x)	21.20	12.39	11.14	9.80
DPS (Rs)	4.7	5.5	6.7	7.6
Dividend Yield	2.50%	2.95%	3.59%	4.08%
EV/EBITDA (x)	18.46	9.78	8.78	7.53
P/FCFE (x)	(14.03)	43.43	(23.85)	82.22
Net Gearing	20.2%	21.9%	18.6%	12.5%
P/BV (x)	1.89	1.59	1.47	1.32
ROE	6.9%	12.1%	12.1%	12.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	1,456,683	1,332,285	1,363,952	1,436,532
Gross Profit	168,370	252,739	269,793	295,656
Operating EBITDA	73,731	142,963	157,408	178,448
Depreciation And Amortisation	(27,016)	(36,720)	(36,967)	(38,816)
Operating EBIT	46,715	106,243	120,441	139,633
Financial Income/(Expense)	(3,710)	(7,192)	(7,192)	(7,192)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	16,821	16,821	16,821	16,821
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	14,478	10,078	10,078	10,078
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	57,483	109,129	123,327	142,519
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	74,304	125,950	140,147	159,339
Taxation	(16,605)	(26,922)	(29,957)	(34,059)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	57,699	99,028	110,191	125,281
Minority Interests	201	36
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	57,900	99,064	110,191	125,281
Recurring Net Profit	44,838	85,839	96,965	112,055
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	44,838	85,839	96,965	112,055

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	73,731	142,963	157,408	178,448
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(34,291)	11,687	(1,664)	(2,212)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	82	(56)	(56)	(56)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(6,955)	(10,858)	(7,192)	(7,192)
Tax Paid	(16,138)	(32,741)	(29,957)	(34,059)
Cashflow From Operations	16,430	110,995	118,539	134,929
Capex	(88,306)	(125,012)	(170,000)	(120,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	11,904	42,278
Cash Flow From Investing	(76,401)	(82,734)	(170,000)	(120,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(13,289)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(30,693)	(36,205)	(44,076)	(50,112)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	73,702	1,631	32,329	30,435
Cash Flow From Financing	29,721	(34,574)	(11,748)	(19,677)
Total Cash Generated	(30,251)	(6,313)	(63,208)	(4,749)
Free Cashflow To Equity	(73,260)	28,261	(51,461)	14,929
Free Cashflow To Firm	(56,262)	35,453	(44,269)	22,121

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	11,030	17,121	33,747	76,029
Total Debtors	106,796	95,803	98,279	103,509
Inventories	59,179	59,700	61,119	64,371
Total Other Current Assets	28,302	30,094	30,094	30,809
Total Current Assets	205,307	202,718	223,239	274,719
Fixed Assets	496,969	479,567	503,545	528,722
Total Investments	338,948	455,368	478,137	502,043
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets	51,551	109,519	114,995	120,745
Total Non-current Assets	887,468	1,044,454	1,096,677	1,151,511
Short-term Debt	53,801	58,020	60,921	63,967
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	71,436	66,397	67,346	70,275
Other Current Liabilities	91,874	91,989	93,272	97,328
Total Current Liabilities	217,110	216,405	221,539	231,570
Total Long-term Debt	88,797	128,060	128,060	128,060
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	91,847	89,392	90,670	94,613
Total Non-current Liabilities	180,644	217,452	218,730	222,674
Total Provisions	43,951	41,357	43,425	45,596
Total Liabilities	441,705	475,215	483,694	499,839
Shareholders Equity	649,274	769,972	836,223	926,391
Minority Interests	1,796	1,986
Total Equity	651,070	771,958	836,223	926,391

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	57.0%	(8.5%)	2.4%	5.3%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(51.3%)	93.9%	10.1%	13.4%
Operating EBITDA Margin	5.1%	10.7%	11.5%	12.4%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(20.01)	(25.70)	(23.61)	(17.64)
BVPS (Rs)	98.75	117.10	127.18	140.89
Gross Interest Cover	12.59	14.77	16.75	19.41
Effective Tax Rate	22.3%	21.4%	21.4%	21.4%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	74.7%	44.0%	47.2%	46.2%
Accounts Receivables Days	22.71	27.75	25.97	25.64
Inventory Days	13.45	20.10	20.15	20.07
Accounts Payables Days	17.71	23.30	22.31	22.01
ROIC (%)	6.0%	12.9%	13.9%	15.3%
ROCE (%)	5.9%	11.6%	11.6%	12.5%
Return On Average Assets	4.2%	7.5%	7.7%	8.3%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611549 pratyush.kamal@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg