InCred Equities - Berger Paints India Limited

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	111,989	117,571	128,313	141,026
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	18,613	18,912	20,251	21,343
Net Profit (Rsm)	11,678	11,844	12,958	13,717
Core EPS (Rs)	10.0	10.2	11.1	11.8
Core EPS Growth	35.9%	1.4%	9.4%	5.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	47.54	46.88	42.85	40.47
DPS (Rs)	3.5	3.6	3.9	4.1
Dividend Yield	0.86%	0.87%	0.95%	1.00%
EV/EBITDA (x)	29.95	29.34	27.24	25.75
P/FCFE (x)	121.79	78.45	68.68	77.37
Net Gearing	4.0%	(0.8%)	(5.3%)	(7.5%)
P/BV (x)	10.32	9.10	8.06	7.19
ROE	23.6%	20.6%	20.0%	18.8%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	111,989	117,571	128,313	141,026
Gross Profit	45,529	47,790	51,264	55,510
Operating EBITDA	18,613	18,912	20,251	21,343
Depreciation And Amortisation	(3,309)	(3,521)	(3,712)	(3,890)
Operating EBIT	15,304	15,392	16,539	17,453
Financial Income/(Expense)	(146)	80	222	239
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	410	190	200	250
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	15,569	15,662	16,961	17,941
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	15,569	15,662	16,961	17,941
Taxation	(3,870)	(3,818)	(4,003)	(4,224)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	11,699	11,844	12,958	13,717
Minority Interests	(21)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	11,678	11,844	12,958	13,717
Recurring Net Profit	11,678	11,844	12,958	13,717
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	11,678	11,844	12,958	13,717

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	18,613	18,912	20,251	21,343
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	793	(5,598)	(5,886)	(7,682)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(783)	(633)	(552)	(602)
Tax Paid	(3,870)	(3,818)	(4,003)	(4,224)
Cashflow From Operations	14,754	8,864	9,811	8,835
Capex	(5,532)	(2,500)	(2,500)	(2,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(308)	713	774	841
Cash Flow From Investing	(5,840)	(1,787)	(1,726)	(1,659)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(4,355)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(4,769)	(4,817)	(5,279)	(5,528)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	2,518	384	394	444
Cash Flow From Financing	(6,605)	(4,432)	(4,885)	(5,084)
Total Cash Generated	2,309	2,645	3,200	2,093
Free Cashflow To Equity	4,559	7,077	8,084	7,176
Free Cashflow To Firm	9,696	7,710	8,637	7,778

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	5,366	8,011	11,210	13,303
Total Debtors	13,020	14,316	18,458	22,325
Inventories	21,797	26,740	29,181	34,915
Total Other Current Assets	4,277	4,277	4,277	4,277
Total Current Assets	44,460	53,344	63,126	74,819
Fixed Assets	33,824	32,803	31,591	30,201
Total Investments	1,917	1,917	1,917	1,917
Intangible Assets	3,047	3,047	3,047	3,047
Total Other Non-Current Assets	431	319	416	497
Total Non-current Assets	39,218	38,086	36,971	35,662
Short-term Debt	3,050	3,050	3,050	3,050
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	20,809	21,339	22,133	24,133
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities	23,859	24,389	25,183	27,183
Total Long-term Debt	4,485	4,485	4,485	4,485
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	4,485	4,485	4,485	4,485
Total Provisions	1,444	1,444	1,444	1,444
Total Liabilities	29,788	30,318	31,112	33,112
Shareholders Equity	53,790	61,012	68,885	77,269
Minority Interests	102	102	102	102
Total Equity	53,892	61,114	68,987	77,371

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	6.0%	5.0%	9.1%	9.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	25.2%	1.6%	7.1%	5.4%
Operating EBITDA Margin	16.6%	16.1%	15.8%	15.1%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(1.86)	0.41	3.15	4.95
BVPS (Rs)	46.14	52.33	59.09	66.28
Gross Interest Cover	19.56	24.33	29.96	28.98
Effective Tax Rate	24.9%	24.4%	23.6%	23.5%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	40.8%	40.7%	40.7%	40.3%
Accounts Receivables Days	41.48	42.43	46.61	52.78
Inventory Days	123.54	126.94	132.46	136.79
Accounts Payables Days	115.93	110.23	102.97	98.73
ROIC (%)	27.5%	25.6%	25.5%	24.5%
ROCE (%)	26.0%	23.8%	22.9%	21.8%
Return On Average Assets	14.5%	13.4%	13.3%	12.8%

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg