InCred Equities - Bharat Petroleum

	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue (Rsm)	2,301,626	3,010,931	2,873,645	2,763,645
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	200,888	186,276	164,681	165,763
Net Profit (Rsm)	161,649	98,940	81,919	81,432
Core EPS (Rs)	81.9	46.3	38.3	38.1
Core EPS Growth	427.0%	(43.4%)	(17.2%)	(0.6%)
FD Core P/E (x)	3.51	6.21	7.50	7.54
DPS (Rs)	79.0	20.0	18.0	18.0
Dividend Yield	30.29%	7.62%	6.85%	6.85%
EV/EBITDA (x)	3.80	5.71	6.57	6.60
P/FCFE (x)	2.83	(7.21)	(69.95)	2,328.88
Net Gearing	74.0%	141.1%	136.2%	130.2%
P/BV (x)	1.06	1.39	1.28	1.18
ROE	35.9%	20.3%	17.8%	16.3%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Net Revenues	2,301,626	3,010,931	2,873,645	2,763,645
Gross Profit	427,639	394,580	378,679	387,659
Operating EBITDA	200,888	186,276	164,681	165,763
Depreciation And Amortisation	(43,342)	(55,378)	(58,723)	(60,612)
Operating EBIT	157,546	130,898	105,958	105,151
Financial Income/(Expense)	(17,234)	(28,824)	(26,083)	(25,682)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	(3,255)	15,888	15,431	15,001
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	87,263	17,189	15,575	16,052
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	224,320	135,151	110,881	110,523
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	224,320	135,151	110,881	110,523
Taxation	(51,122)	(36,490)	(29,242)	(29,370)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	173,198	98,661	81,639	81,153
Minority Interests	(11,549)	279	279	279
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	161,649	98,940	81,919	81,432
Recurring Net Profit	161,649	98,940	81,919	81,432
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	161,649	98,940	81,919	81,432

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
EBITDA	200,888	186,276	164,681	165,763
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	87,263	17,189	15,575	16,052
Change In Working Capital	71,215	(25,800)	9,419	18,647
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	(33,486)	(30,011)	(2,672)	(2,991)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(17,234)	(28,824)	(26,083)	(25,682)
Tax Paid	(51,122)	(36,490)	(29,242)	(29,370)
Cashflow From Operations	257,524	82,340	131,678	142,420
Capex	(75,644)	(190,026)	(132,408)	(136,156)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	18,466	22,446	(8,050)	(6,000)
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(57,178)	(167,580)	(140,458)	(142,156)
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	52,273	4,989
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(42,323)	(162,356)	(38,880)	(38,453)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	9,950	(157,368)	(38,880)	(38,453)
Total Cash Generated	210,296	(242,608)	(47,660)	(38,189)
Free Cashflow To Equity	200,346	(85,240)	(8,780)	264
Free Cashflow To Firm	217,580	(56,417)	17,303	25,945

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Cash And Equivalents	149,044	60,483	60,484	60,485
Total Debtors	78,348	97,369	93,542	91,137
Inventories	267,060	349,695	340,254	327,143
Total Other Current Assets	102,062	116,512	113,241	110,796
Total Current Assets	596,514	624,060	607,521	589,561
Fixed Assets	813,637	948,285	1,021,970	1,097,514
Total Investments	199,734	177,288	185,338	191,338
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	1,013,371	1,125,573	1,207,308	1,288,852
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	435,858	520,526	513,406	514,092
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities	435,858	520,526	513,406	514,092
Total Long-term Debt	545,318	684,911	713,692	732,981
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	545,318	684,911	713,692	732,981
Total Provisions	93,158	97,363	100,812	104,711
Total Liabilities	1,074,334	1,302,800	1,327,909	1,351,784
Shareholders Equity	535,551	440,930	479,737	518,313
Minority Interests		1,590	(4)	(1,916)
Total Equity	535,551	442,520	479,733	516,397

	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue Growth	(19.1%)	30.8%	(4.6%)	(3.8%)
Operating EBITDA Growth	116.0%	(7.3%)	(11.6%)	0.7%
Operating EBITDA Margin	8.7%	6.2%	5.7%	6.0%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(200.70)	(292.30)	(305.77)	(314.80)
BVPS (Rs)	271.25	206.40	224.57	242.63
Gross Interest Cover	9.14	4.54	4.06	4.09
Effective Tax Rate	22.8%	27.0%	26.4%	26.6%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	106.4%	47.3%	51.4%	51.7%
Accounts Receivables Days	10.48	10.65	12.12	12.20
Inventory Days	47.67	43.02	50.47	51.26
Accounts Payables Days	78.45	66.71	75.63	78.92
ROIC (%)	14.3%	9.9%	7.5%	7.1%
ROCE (%)	14.1%	11.4%	8.8%	8.2%
Return On Average Assets	11.9%	7.2%	5.7%	5.4%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg