InCred Equities - APL Apollo Tubes

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	161,660	178,604	206,612	257,906
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	10,216	12,449	16,942	22,567
Net Profit (Rsm)	6,419	7,658	10,898	15,543
Core EPS (Rs)	23.1	27.6	39.3	56.0
Core EPS Growth	4.0%	19.3%	42.3%	42.6%
FD Core P/E (x)	63.38	53.14	37.35	26.19
DPS (Rs)	5.0	6.0	7.0	9.0
Dividend Yield	0.34%	0.41%	0.48%	0.61%
EV/EBITDA (x)	40.33	33.00	23.80	17.37
P/FCFE (x)	370.27	55.35	64.28	44.94
Net Gearing	17.3%	10.8%	(8.5%)	(25.9%)
P/BV (x)	13.53	11.29	9.04	7.01
ROE	24.4%	23.2%	26.9%	30.2%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	161,660	178,604	206,612	257,906
Gross Profit	21,482	25,540	31,818	39,202
Operating EBITDA	10,216	12,449	16,942	22,567
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,383)	(1,820)	(2,133)	(2,289)
Operating EBIT	8,832	10,629	14,809	20,278
Financial Income/(Expense)	(447)	(781)	(528)	183
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	248	500	250	263
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	8,633	10,348	14,531	20,724
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	8,633	10,348	14,531	20,724
Taxation	(2,215)	(2,691)	(3,633)	(5,181)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	6,419	7,658	10,898	15,543
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	6,419	7,658	10,898	15,543
Recurring Net Profit	6,419	7,658	10,898	15,543
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	6,419	7,658	10,898	15,543

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	10,216	12,449	16,942	22,567
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(1,475)	(6)	(770)	(1,410)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	(126)	(281)	(278)	446
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	447	781	528	(183)
Tax Paid	(2,161)	(2,691)	(3,633)	(5,181)
Cashflow From Operations	6,901	10,252	12,790	16,239
Capex	(8,621)	(6,500)	(2,600)	(2,710)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries	197
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(393)		(2,000)	(2,000)
Other Investing Cashflow	59	348	642	1,030
Cash Flow From Investing	(8,757)	(6,152)	(3,958)	(3,680)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	2,902	3,250	(2,500)	(3,500)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	27
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(875)	(1,664)	(1,941)	(2,496)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(602)	(1,129)	(1,170)	(846)
Cash Flow From Financing	1,452	457	(5,611)	(6,842)
Total Cash Generated	(405)	4,558	3,220	5,716
Free Cashflow To Equity	1,045	7,350	6,331	9,058
Free Cashflow To Firm	(2,528)	2,972	7,662	11,712

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	3,525	8,082	13,303	21,018
Total Debtors	1,374	3,915	4,528	5,653
Inventories	14,799	14,680	16,982	21,198
Total Other Current Assets	5,880	4,419	5,112	6,381
Total Current Assets	25,577	31,095	39,925	54,250
Fixed Assets	23,505	30,925	31,892	32,313
Total Investments	960	960	960	960
Intangible Assets	1,375	1,375	1,375	1,375
Total Other Non-Current Assets	7,098	4,356	3,856	3,856
Total Non-current Assets	32,939	37,616	38,083	38,504
Short-term Debt	4,648	6,378	5,047	3,184
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	15,970	17,126	19,812	24,731
Other Current Liabilities	1,184	979	1,132	1,413
Total Current Liabilities	21,801	24,483	25,991	29,328
Total Long-term Debt	4,081	5,601	4,432	2,796
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	1,406	1,406	1,406	1,406
Total Non-current Liabilities	5,487	7,007	5,838	4,201
Total Provisions	1,171	1,171	1,171	1,171
Total Liabilities	28,460	32,662	33,001	34,700
Shareholders Equity	30,056	36,050	45,007	58,053
Minority Interests
Total Equity	30,056	36,050	45,007	58,053

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	23.8%	10.5%	15.7%	24.8%
Operating EBITDA Growth	8.1%	21.9%	36.1%	33.2%
Operating EBITDA Margin	6.3%	7.0%	8.2%	8.7%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(18.77)	(14.05)	13.78	54.19
BVPS (Rs)	108.38	129.94	162.17	209.18
Gross Interest Cover	13.16	9.42	12.66	23.96
Effective Tax Rate	25.7%	26.0%	25.0%	25.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	16.1%	16.1%	13.4%	12.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	5.41	5.40	7.46	7.20
Inventory Days	30.30	35.15	33.06	31.86
Accounts Payables Days	34.58	39.46	38.57	37.17
ROIC (%)	31.7%	28.8%	35.6%	47.4%
ROCE (%)	25.3%	24.6%	29.5%	35.3%
Return On Average Assets	17.6%	17.5%	20.5%	24.1%

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Source: Bloomberg