InCred Equities - Astral Ltd.

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	51,585	55,890	65,314	75,230
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	8,099	9,613	10,450	12,375
Net Profit (Rsm)	4,725	5,718	6,217	7,611
Core EPS (Rs)	17.7	21.3	23.1	28.3
Core EPS Growth	(26.7%)	20.5%	8.7%	22.4%
FD Core P/E (x)	98.29	81.24	74.71	61.03
DPS (Rs)	3.5	4.0	4.5	5.0
Dividend Yield	0.20%	0.23%	0.26%	0.29%
EV/EBITDA (x)	56.90	48.14	44.07	36.71
P/FCFE (x)	(4,272.78)	(165.68)	215.62	114.83
Net Gearing	(20.4%)	(12.2%)	(16.3%)	(27.8%)
P/BV (x)	17.13	14.63	12.64	10.80
ROE	18.8%	19.4%	18.1%	19.1%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	51,585	55,890	65,314	75,230
Gross Profit	17,238	22,216	25,309	28,963
Operating EBITDA	8,099	9,613	10,450	12,375
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,781)	(1,972)	(2,264)	(2,530)
Operating EBIT	6,318	7,641	8,187	9,845
Financial Income/(Expense)	(368)	(63)	(6)	192
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	(15)
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	235	125	131	138
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	6,170	7,704	8,312	10,175
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	6,170	7,704	8,312	10,175
Taxation	(1,557)	(1,981)	(2,089)	(2,558)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	(18)
Profit After Tax	4,595	5,723	6,223	7,617
Minority Interests	130	(5)	(6)	(6)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	4,725	5,718	6,217	7,611
Recurring Net Profit	4,743	5,718	6,217	7,611
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	4,743	5,718	6,217	7,611

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	8,099	9,613	10,450	12,375
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(1,026)	(946)	(1,974)	(788)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	(194)	233	486	731
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	344	63	6	(192)
Tax Paid	(1,654)	(1,981)	(2,089)	(2,558)
Cashflow From Operations	5,569	6,982	6,880	9,568
Capex	(3,110)	(4,550)	(3,059)	(2,568)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries	11
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(1,730)	(5,500)	(2,000)	(3,500)
Other Investing Cashflow	32	265	334	545
Cash Flow From Investing	(4,797)	(9,785)	(4,725)	(5,523)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(867)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(603)	(1,076)	(1,211)	(1,345)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(366)	(327)	(340)	(353)
Cash Flow From Financing	(1,836)	(1,403)	(1,550)	(1,698)
Total Cash Generated	(1,064)	(4,207)	604	2,347
Free Cashflow To Equity	(95)	(2,803)	2,154	4,045
Free Cashflow To Firm	372	(3,131)	1,814	3,692

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	6,821	4,944	7,187	12,633
Total Debtors	3,545	4,287	5,010	5,771
Inventories	8,746	9,187	10,737	12,367
Total Other Current Assets	1,427	919	1,074	1,237
Total Current Assets	20,539	19,337	24,007	32,007
Fixed Assets	15,736	17,875	18,933	19,879
Total Investments		3,000	3,000	3,000
Intangible Assets	3,125	3,125	3,125	3,125
Total Other Non-Current Assets	4,221	4,660	4,398	3,490
Total Non-current Assets	23,082	28,660	29,456	29,494
Short-term Debt	457	457	457
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	8,000	8,422	9,842	11,336
Other Current Liabilities	3,448	2,756	1,789	2,061
Total Current Liabilities	11,905	11,635	12,088	13,397
Total Long-term Debt	316	316	316
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	1,512	1,512	1,512	1,512
Total Non-current Liabilities	1,828	1,828	1,828	1,512
Total Provisions	299	299	299	299
Total Liabilities	14,032	13,762	14,215	15,208
Shareholders Equity	27,112	31,754	36,760	43,026
Minority Interests	2,477	2,482	2,488	2,494
Total Equity	29,589	34,236	39,248	45,520

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	17.4%	8.3%	16.9%	15.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth	7.2%	18.7%	8.7%	18.4%
Operating EBITDA Margin	15.7%	17.2%	16.0%	16.4%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	22.52	15.53	23.88	47.03
BVPS (Rs)	100.94	118.21	136.84	160.17
Gross Interest Cover	15.80	23.35	24.09	27.90
Effective Tax Rate	25.2%	25.7%	25.1%	25.1%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	14.9%	14.0%	14.6%	13.2%
Accounts Receivables Days	22.06	25.58	25.98	26.15
Inventory Days	85.44	97.19	90.89	91.13
Accounts Payables Days	82.27	89.00	83.32	83.54
ROIC (%)	33.9%	30.1%	28.4%	31.1%
ROCE (%)	22.9%	24.0%	22.5%	24.1%
Return On Average Assets	16.9%	17.0%	16.4%	17.4%

(91) 22 4161 1546 rajarshi.maitra@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1500 shivam.agarwal@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg