InCred Equities - Bharat Forge

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	151,228	156,215	175,459	199,489
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	26,939	28,119	31,934	36,507
Net Profit (Rsm)	9,133	12,153	14,954	18,001
Core EPS (Rs)	21.2	25.4	31.3	37.6
Core EPS Growth	10.2%	20.1%	23.0%	20.4%
FD Core P/E (x)	64.03	48.12	39.10	32.48
DPS (Rs)	11.0	10.0	11.0	12.0
Dividend Yield	0.90%	0.82%	0.90%	0.98%
EV/EBITDA (x)	22.78	20.76	18.28	15.97
P/FCFE (x)	474.31	36.31	(176.27)	(81.19)
Net Gearing	54.2%	23.7%	27.1%	29.1%
P/BV (x)	6.32	4.63	4.21	3.80
ROE	12.3%	11.1%	11.3%	12.3%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	151,228	156,215	175,459	199,489
Gross Profit	43,901	44,521	50,181	57,253
Operating EBITDA	26,939	28,119	31,934	36,507
Depreciation And Amortisation	(8,736)	(9,002)	(9,434)	(9,828)
Operating EBIT	18,203	19,116	22,500	26,678
Financial Income/(Expense)	(4,175)	(3,199)	(2,599)	(2,429)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	2,138	2,445	2,642	2,842
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	16,166	18,363	22,544	27,091
Exceptional Items	(1,571)
Pre-tax Profit	14,595	18,363	22,544	27,091
Taxation	(5,426)	(6,060)	(7,439)	(8,940)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	9,170	12,303	15,104	18,151
Minority Interests	(37)	(150)	(150)	(150)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	9,133	12,153	14,954	18,001
Recurring Net Profit	10,120	12,153	14,954	18,001
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	10,120	12,153	14,954	18,001

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	26,939	28,119	31,934	36,507
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(165)	(1,753)	(2,441)	(6,801)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	(479)	5,387	(1,300)	(400)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	1,159	2,624	952	1,075
Other Operating Cashflow	(1,571)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,037)	(753)	44	413
Tax Paid	(5,849)	(3,673)	(4,509)	(5,418)
Cashflow From Operations	17,999	29,951	24,680	25,375
Capex	(19,648)	(18,970)	(19,200)	(18,250)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	15,219	13,940	(8,047)	(8,578)
Cash Flow From Investing	(4,429)	(5,030)	(27,247)	(26,828)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(12,337)	(8,817)	(750)	(5,750)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(291)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(5,259)	(4,781)	(5,259)	(5,738)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(17,887)	(13,598)	(6,009)	(11,488)
Total Cash Generated	(4,317)	11,322	(8,577)	(12,940)
Free Cashflow To Equity	1,233	16,104	(3,317)	(7,203)
Free Cashflow To Firm	17,745	28,119	31	976

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	12,914	24,236	15,659	2,719
Total Debtors	29,132	32,099	35,092	38,805
Inventories	35,784	35,951	39,418	43,724
Total Other Current Assets	18,840	18,500	21,000	22,500
Total Current Assets	96,670	110,786	111,169	107,747
Fixed Assets	80,959	90,926	100,692	109,114
Total Investments	20,627	30,627	38,627	46,627
Intangible Assets	2,628	2,628	2,628	2,628
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	104,213	124,181	141,947	158,369
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	23,442	24,823	28,843	30,060
Other Current Liabilities	17,015	22,000	23,000	24,000
Total Current Liabilities	40,457	46,823	51,843	54,060
Total Long-term Debt	62,884	54,067	53,317	47,567
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	62,884	54,067	53,317	47,567
Total Provisions	5,336	8,022	9,174	10,349
Total Liabilities	108,677	108,912	114,333	111,975
Shareholders Equity	92,533	126,232	138,810	154,018
Minority Interests	(328)	(178)	(28)	122
Total Equity	92,206	126,055	138,783	154,141

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	(3.6%)	3.3%	12.3%	13.7%
Operating EBITDA Growth	5.3%	4.4%	13.6%	14.3%
Operating EBITDA Margin	17.8%	18.0%	18.2%	18.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(104.51)	(62.39)	(78.76)	(93.80)
BVPS (Rs)	193.53	264.01	290.32	322.12
Gross Interest Cover	4.36	5.98	8.66	10.98
Effective Tax Rate	37.2%	33.0%	33.0%	33.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	49.1%	39.3%	35.2%	31.9%
Accounts Receivables Days	73.49	71.53	69.89	67.60
Inventory Days	115.54	117.21	109.80	106.68
Accounts Payables Days	78.33	78.86	78.18	75.58
ROIC (%)	10.6%	10.1%	11.3%	12.2%
ROCE (%)	12.0%	11.2%	11.8%	13.2%
Return On Average Assets	6.9%	6.6%	6.9%	7.6%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

More Reports

Market Data

Source: Bloomberg