InCred Equities - Bharat Forge

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	156,821	177,034	204,472	235,781
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	25,579	30,981	33,942	39,611
Net Profit (Rsm)	9,101	12,071	16,078	19,823
Core EPS (Rs)	19.7	28.1	34.5	42.6
Core EPS Growth	87.0%	42.3%	23.1%	23.3%
FD Core P/E (x)	67.71	51.05	38.33	31.09
DPS (Rs)	10.0	11.0	11.0	11.0
Dividend Yield	0.76%	0.83%	0.83%	0.83%
EV/EBITDA (x)	25.65	20.62	18.61	15.73
P/FCFE (x)	53.48	895.78	(110.81)	116.52
Net Gearing	81.4%	49.7%	44.5%	37.1%
P/BV (x)	8.59	6.00	5.09	4.32
ROE	13.2%	15.0%	14.4%	15.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	156,821	177,034	204,472	235,781
Gross Profit	42,853	49,924	55,003	64,133
Operating EBITDA	25,579	30,981	33,942	39,611
Depreciation And Amortisation	(8,482)	(8,922)	(9,124)	(9,448)
Operating EBIT	17,097	22,059	24,819	30,163
Financial Income/(Expense)	(4,912)	(4,606)	(3,090)	(2,611)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	2,274	2,517	2,860	2,709
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	14,460	19,969	24,588	30,261
Exceptional Items	(123)	(1,518)
Pre-tax Profit	14,336	18,452	24,588	30,261
Taxation	(5,288)	(6,390)	(8,360)	(10,289)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	9,048	12,061	16,228	19,973
Minority Interests	53	10	(150)	(150)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	9,101	12,071	16,078	19,823
Recurring Net Profit	9,179	13,064	16,078	19,823
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	9,179	13,064	16,078	19,823

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	25,579	30,981	33,942	39,611
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(572)	(9,618)	(5,092)	(6,640)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	(6,052)	708	800	700
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	(619)	3,210	2,424	1,245
Other Operating Cashflow	(123)	(1,518)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,637)	(2,090)	(231)	98
Tax Paid	(5,691)	(4,992)	(4,918)	(6,052)
Cashflow From Operations	9,884	16,682	26,926	28,962
Capex	(12,862)	(17,000)	(18,600)	(17,600)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	7,803	12,731	(6,137)	(5,324)
Cash Flow From Investing	(5,060)	(4,269)	(24,737)	(22,924)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	6,697	(11,725)	(7,750)	(750)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(356)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(4,656)	(5,122)	(5,122)	(5,122)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(5)
Cash Flow From Financing	1,680	(16,847)	(12,872)	(5,872)
Total Cash Generated	6,504	(4,434)	(10,683)	167
Free Cashflow To Equity	11,522	688	(5,561)	5,289
Free Cashflow To Firm	9,736	17,020	5,280	8,650

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	16,899	12,465	1,782	1,949
Total Debtors	31,769	39,772	44,816	50,386
Inventories	32,161	37,832	44,816	51,678
Total Other Current Assets	19,514	20,000	21,500	23,000
Total Current Assets	100,344	110,069	112,914	127,013
Fixed Assets	70,046	78,124	87,600	95,753
Total Investments	18,490	28,490	38,490	46,490
Intangible Assets	2,960	2,960	2,960	2,960
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	91,496	109,574	129,050	145,202
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	22,621	26,676	33,612	39,405
Other Current Liabilities	18,999	20,000	22,000	24,000
Total Current Liabilities	41,620	46,676	55,612	63,405
Total Long-term Debt	75,221	63,496	55,746	54,996
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	75,221	63,496	55,746	54,996
Total Provisions	3,346	6,749	9,474	10,919
Total Liabilities	120,186	116,921	120,831	129,319
Shareholders Equity	71,702	102,780	121,042	142,655
Minority Interests	(49)	(59)	91	241
Total Equity	71,653	102,722	121,133	142,897

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	21.5%	12.9%	15.5%	15.3%
Operating EBITDA Growth	44.7%	21.1%	9.6%	16.7%
Operating EBITDA Margin	16.3%	17.5%	16.6%	16.8%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(125.25)	(109.59)	(115.89)	(113.92)
BVPS (Rs)	153.98	220.72	259.94	306.36
Gross Interest Cover	3.48	4.79	8.03	11.55
Effective Tax Rate	36.9%	34.6%	34.0%	34.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	50.5%	37.7%	31.9%	25.8%
Accounts Receivables Days	73.03	73.75	75.50	73.69
Inventory Days	101.56	100.49	100.91	102.59
Accounts Payables Days	70.67	70.78	73.61	77.63
ROIC (%)	11.1%	12.9%	12.6%	13.8%
ROCE (%)	12.1%	13.9%	14.1%	15.6%
Return On Average Assets	6.7%	8.1%	7.9%	8.4%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg