InCred Equities - Bharat Heavy Electricals

	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue (Rsm)	162,956	206,580	238,787	255,313
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	(31,353)	(3,681)	7,755	12,578
Net Profit (Rsm)	(27,171)	(5,071)	3,689	7,630
Core EPS (Rs)	(7.8)	(1.5)	1.1	2.2
Core EPS Growth	84.5%	(81.3%)	(172.7%)	106.8%
FD Core P/E (x)	(28.95)	(155.12)	213.22	103.08
DPS (Rs)			0.5	1.1
Dividend Yield			0.23%	0.49%
EV/EBITDA (x)	(24.51)	(207.83)	99.43	60.31
P/FCFE (x)	224.66	100.38	(204.05)	86.30
Net Gearing	(6.9%)	(8.3%)	(5.9%)	(10.5%)
P/BV (x)	2.97	3.03	3.01	2.96
ROE	(9.8%)	(1.9%)	1.4%	2.9%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Net Revenues	173,084	217,048	249,993	266,923
Gross Profit	57,266	74,230	87,497	93,423
Operating EBITDA	(31,353)	(3,681)	7,755	12,578
Depreciation And Amortisation	(4,731)	(3,096)	(3,214)	(3,343)
Operating EBIT	(36,083)	(6,778)	4,541	9,234
Financial Income/(Expense)	(3,731)	(3,476)	(3,293)	(2,836)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	3,698	3,514	3,656	3,743
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	(36,116)	(6,740)	4,903	10,142
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	(36,116)	(6,740)	4,903	10,142
Taxation	8,945	1,669	(1,214)	(2,512)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	(27,171)	(5,071)	3,689	7,630
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	(27,171)	(5,071)	3,689	7,630
Recurring Net Profit	(27,171)	(5,071)	3,689	7,630
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	(27,171)	(5,071)	3,689	7,630

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
EBITDA	(31,353)	(3,681)	7,755	12,578
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	(4,763)	(3,059)	(2,852)	(2,436)
Change In Working Capital	26,226	9,368	(8,551)	8,304
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	12,411
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	4,731	3,096	3,214	3,343
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	308	(38)	(362)	(907)
Tax Paid	(1,904)	1,669	(1,214)	(2,512)
Cashflow From Operations	5,655	7,356	(2,010)	18,370
Capex	(2,485)	(2,500)	(2,500)	(3,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	2,060	3,514	3,656	3,743
Cash Flow From Investing	(426)	1,014	1,156	743
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(1,729)	(534)	(3,000)	(10,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(7)		(1,844)	(3,815)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(2,213)	(3,476)	(3,293)	(2,836)
Cash Flow From Financing	(3,949)	(4,010)	(8,138)	(16,651)
Total Cash Generated	1,281	4,359	(8,992)	2,462
Free Cashflow To Equity	3,501	7,835	(3,854)	9,113
Free Cashflow To Firm	4,922	8,407	(492)	20,021

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Cash And Equivalents	67,014	69,788	60,796	63,258
Total Debtors	72,134	80,278	92,463	95,068
Inventories	71,912	71,358	78,765	84,099
Total Other Current Assets	273,576	257,782	262,663	258,513
Total Current Assets	484,636	479,206	494,687	500,938
Fixed Assets	29,079	28,482	27,768	27,425
Total Investments	6,700	6,700	6,700	6,700
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets	36,598	36,598	36,598	36,598
Total Non-current Assets	72,377	71,780	71,066	70,723
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	154,228	154,196	161,417	166,808
Other Current Liabilities	89,072	90,268	98,970	105,672
Total Current Liabilities	243,300	244,464	260,387	272,480
Total Long-term Debt	48,872	48,338	45,338	35,338
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	48,872	48,338	45,338	35,338
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	292,172	292,802	305,724	307,817
Shareholders Equity	264,841	259,770	261,614	265,429
Minority Interests
Total Equity	264,841	259,770	261,614	265,429

	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue Growth	(20.5%)	26.8%	15.6%	6.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	1,246.3%	(88.3%)	(310.7%)	62.2%
Operating EBITDA Margin	(19.2%)	(1.8%)	3.2%	4.9%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	5.21	6.16	4.44	8.02
BVPS (Rs)	76.06	74.60	75.13	76.23
Gross Interest Cover	(9.67)	(1.95)	1.38	3.26
Effective Tax Rate			24.8%	24.8%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio			50.0%	50.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	206.57	128.15	126.10	128.22
Inventory Days	253.64	183.08	168.60	171.31
Accounts Payables Days	(290.86)	(217.56)	(199.44)	(200.35)
ROIC (%)	(11.4%)	(2.0%)	1.3%	2.7%
ROCE (%)	(11.0%)	(2.2%)	1.5%	3.0%
Return On Average Assets	(4.2%)	(0.5%)	1.1%	1.7%

(91) 22 4161 1542 arafat.saiyed@incredresearch.com

Market Data

Source: Bloomberg