InCred Equities - TVS Motor Co Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	317,764	348,973	388,364	430,785
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	35,141	40,132	44,274	48,679
Net Profit (Rsm)	20,831	22,410	24,147	27,093
Core EPS (Rs)	42.0	46.7	50.8	57.0
Core EPS Growth	39.1%	11.4%	8.8%	12.2%
FD Core P/E (x)	55.41	51.50	47.80	42.60
DPS (Rs)	8.0	9.0	10.0	12.0
Dividend Yield	0.33%	0.37%	0.41%	0.49%
EV/EBITDA (x)	33.19	28.93	26.41	23.95
P/FCFE (x)	184.30	133.44	82.39	148.50
Net Gearing	15.8%	9.2%	15.9%	10.0%
P/BV (x)	14.93	15.10	12.04	9.84
ROE	28.9%	28.9%	28.0%	25.4%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	317,764	348,973	388,364	430,785
Gross Profit	83,474	95,968	104,858	114,158
Operating EBITDA	35,141	40,132	44,274	48,679
Depreciation And Amortisation	(7,004)	(7,929)	(8,991)	(9,942)
Operating EBIT	28,138	32,203	35,283	38,737
Financial Income/(Expense)	(1,816)	(2,400)	(2,750)	(2,250)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	285	300	320	375
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	26,606	30,103	32,853	36,862
Exceptional Items	1,201	285
Pre-tax Profit	27,807	30,388	32,853	36,862
Taxation	(6,977)	(7,977)	(8,706)	(9,768)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	20,831	22,410	24,147	27,093
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	20,831	22,410	24,147	27,093
Recurring Net Profit	19,931	22,200	24,147	27,093
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	19,931	22,200	24,147	27,093

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	35,141	40,132	44,274	48,679
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	5,001	466	3,870	(2,763)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	3,312	(172)	(300)	(300)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(1,531)	(2,100)	(2,430)	(1,875)
Tax Paid	(6,977)	(7,977)	(8,706)	(9,768)
Cashflow From Operations	34,946	30,349	36,707	33,972
Capex	(11,787)	(11,000)	(12,000)	(13,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(9,583)	(10,200)	(9,200)	(11,200)
Cash Flow From Investing	(21,371)	(21,200)	(21,200)	(24,700)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(7,313)	(500)	(1,500)	(1,500)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares			(19,000)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(3,801)	(4,276)	(4,751)	(5,701)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	1,201	285
Cash Flow From Financing	(9,913)	(4,491)	(25,251)	(7,201)
Total Cash Generated	3,663	4,658	(9,744)	2,071
Free Cashflow To Equity	6,262	8,649	14,007	7,772
Free Cashflow To Firm	15,392	11,549	18,257	11,522

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	6,083	10,740	996	3,067
Total Debtors	13,021	15,297	18,088	23,605
Inventories	13,708	17,210	20,216	25,965
Total Other Current Assets	10,878	11,950	13,150	14,350
Total Current Assets	43,690	55,197	52,451	66,987
Fixed Assets	47,020	50,091	53,100	56,658
Total Investments	69,913	79,913	88,913	99,913
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	116,933	130,003	142,013	156,571
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	51,122	57,365	67,033	75,535
Other Current Liabilities	8,560	9,060	9,560	10,060
Total Current Liabilities	59,682	66,425	76,593	85,595
Total Long-term Debt	18,265	17,765	16,265	14,765
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	18,265	17,765	16,265	14,765
Total Provisions	5,365	5,565	5,765	5,965
Total Liabilities	83,312	89,756	98,623	106,325
Shareholders Equity	77,310	76,445	95,841	117,233
Minority Interests
Total Equity	77,310	76,445	95,841	117,233

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	20.5%	9.8%	11.3%	10.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	31.4%	14.2%	10.3%	9.9%
Operating EBITDA Margin	11.1%	11.5%	11.4%	11.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(25.64)	(14.79)	(32.14)	(24.62)
BVPS (Rs)	162.72	160.90	201.73	246.75
Gross Interest Cover	15.49	13.42	12.83	17.22
Effective Tax Rate	25.1%	26.3%	26.5%	26.5%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	19.4%	19.3%	19.7%	21.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	12.96	14.81	15.69	17.66
Inventory Days	20.31	22.30	24.09	26.62
Accounts Payables Days	72.00	78.25	80.08	82.17
ROIC (%)	65.9%	94.9%	92.2%	101.8%
ROCE (%)	30.3%	33.3%	33.6%	31.3%
Return On Average Assets	14.0%	13.8%	13.8%	13.8%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg