InCred Equities - Timken Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	28,957	33,035	39,182	43,936
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	5,724	6,355	8,079	8,974
Net Profit (Rsm)	3,921	4,391	5,493	6,161
Core EPS (Rs)	52.1	58.4	73.0	81.9
Core EPS Growth	0.4%	12.0%	25.1%	12.2%
FD Core P/E (x)	62.74	56.03	44.79	39.93
DPS (Rs)	1.5	2.0	2.5	3.0
Dividend Yield	0.05%	0.06%	0.08%	0.09%
EV/EBITDA (x)	42.56	38.34	29.93	26.48
P/FCFE (x)	87.04	121.47	43.96	30.65
Net Gearing	(9.8%)	(8.4%)	(12.4%)	(21.1%)
P/BV (x)	10.17	8.66	7.29	6.20
ROE	17.6%	16.7%	17.7%	16.8%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	29,095	33,035	39,182	43,936
Gross Profit	11,929	13,016	15,947	17,794
Operating EBITDA	5,724	6,355	8,079	8,974
Depreciation And Amortisation	(852)	(929)	(1,252)	(1,343)
Operating EBIT	4,872	5,426	6,827	7,631
Financial Income/(Expense)	(38)	(40)	(35)	(30)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	408	508	581	669
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	5,242	5,894	7,373	8,270
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	5,242	5,894	7,373	8,270
Taxation	(1,321)	(1,503)	(1,880)	(2,109)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	3,921	4,391	5,493	6,161
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	3,921	4,391	5,493	6,161
Recurring Net Profit	3,921	4,391	5,493	6,161
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	3,921	4,391	5,493	6,161

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	5,724	6,355	8,079	8,974
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	(482)	(461)	(706)	(704)
Change In Working Capital	(1,004)	(1,574)	(3,361)	(1,690)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	852	929	1,252	1,343
Other Operating Cashflow	(370)	(468)	(546)	(639)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(38)	(40)	(35)	(30)
Tax Paid	(1,321)	(1,503)	(1,880)	(2,109)
Cashflow From Operations	3,362	3,239	2,803	5,146
Capex	(2,600)	(3,600)	(1,400)	(1,400)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	2,065	2,387	4,194	4,281
Cash Flow From Investing	(535)	(1,213)	2,794	2,881
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(113)	(150)	(188)	(226)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(38)	(40)	(35)	(30)
Cash Flow From Financing	(151)	(190)	(223)	(256)
Total Cash Generated	2,676	1,835	5,374	7,772
Free Cashflow To Equity	2,826	2,025	5,597	8,027
Free Cashflow To Firm	2,864	2,065	5,632	8,057

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	2,674	2,670	4,466	8,655
Total Debtors	6,776	7,693	9,661	10,834
Inventories	5,904	7,241	9,125	10,232
Total Other Current Assets	1,212	1,376	1,632	1,830
Total Current Assets	16,565	18,980	24,884	31,551
Fixed Assets	8,903	11,574	11,721	11,778
Total Investments	2,359	2,359	2,359	2,359
Intangible Assets	1,813	1,813	1,813	1,813
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	13,075	15,746	15,894	15,950
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	3,667	4,344	4,831	5,417
Other Current Liabilities	1,235	1,402	1,663	1,865
Total Current Liabilities	4,902	5,746	6,494	7,282
Total Long-term Debt	294	294	294	294
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	294	294	294	294
Total Provisions	264	264	264	264
Total Liabilities	5,460	6,305	7,052	7,840
Shareholders Equity	24,180	28,421	33,726	39,662
Minority Interests
Total Equity	24,180	28,421	33,726	39,662

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	3.9%	14.1%	18.6%	12.1%
Operating EBITDA Growth	2.2%	11.0%	27.1%	11.1%
Operating EBITDA Margin	19.8%	19.2%	20.6%	20.4%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	31.64	31.58	55.47	111.17
BVPS (Rs)	321.50	377.89	448.42	527.34
Gross Interest Cover	128.59	135.65	195.06	254.37
Effective Tax Rate	25.2%	25.5%	25.5%	25.5%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	2.9%	3.4%	3.4%	3.7%
Accounts Receivables Days	78.61	79.93	80.83	85.13
Inventory Days	123.31	119.83	128.54	135.13
Accounts Payables Days	(75.60)	(73.03)	(72.07)	(71.54)
ROIC (%)	21.0%	20.1%	20.8%	20.3%
ROCE (%)	21.3%	20.2%	21.6%	20.5%
Return On Average Assets	14.3%	13.7%	14.6%	14.0%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg