India

Neutral (no change)

Highlighted Companies

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd
ADD, TP Rs823, Rs739 close

Ex-acquisitions, we expect a 12% EBITDA CAGR for Adani Ports over FY20-24F. Our target price implies a 11.6x FY25F EV/EBITDA (10% discount to five-year average).

 

Container Corp of India Ltd
ADD, TP Rs940, Rs671 close

We expect a sharp volume growth for Concor over FY23-25F, driven by the shift in cargo from road to rail after the commissioning of the Dedicated Freight Corridor.

 

Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd
ADD, TP Rs148, Rs122 close

Going ahead, connectivity to the Dedicated Freight Corridor or DFC is likely to boost Gujarat Pipavav Port in FY24F-25F, while JNPT could be connected to the DFC in one-to-two years.

 

Summary Valuation Metrics

P/E (x) Mar22-A Mar23-A Mar24-F
Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd 32.4 21.69 18.01
Container Corp of India Ltd 38.85 33.28 25.93
Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd 30.56 18.14 14.74
P/BV (x) Mar22-F Mar23-F Mar24-F
Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd 4.08 3.51 2.95
Container Corp of India Ltd 3.79 3.51 3.21
Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd 2.91 2.82 2.7
Dividend Yield Mar22-F Mar23-F Mar24-F
Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd 0.83% 0.58% 0.14%
Container Corp of India Ltd 1.34% 0.9% 1.16%
Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd 3.95% 4.5% 5.13%
Analyst(s)

Rajarshi MAITRA

T (91) 22 4161 1546
E rajarshi.maitra@incredcapital.com

Parth THAKKAR

T (022) 22 4161 0000
E parth.thakkar@incredcapital.com

Sector pulse: Railways & Ports – Jun 2023

Rail cargo (tonne km or tkm) declined by 7.6% yoy, most likely due to precautions and procedures after the train accident in Odisha on 2 Jun 2023.

Major ports (MPs) + Adani Ports (APSEZ) cargo grew just 1% yoy (vs. 5% yoy growth in 1QFY24) due to weak coal and container cargo at MPs.

Railways (Jun 2023): 7.6% yoy dip in overall cargo most likely due to precautions and procedures after the recent train accident in Odisha

Rail cargo (tkm) declined by 7.6% yoy {vs. (-)3.5%/ 5% yoy growth in 1QFY24/ 4QFY23, respectively} and container cargo (tkm) declined by 6.5% yoy (vs. 1%/ 7% yoy growth in 1QFY24/ 4QFY23, respectively).

We believe the sudden sharp decline in rail cargo in Jun 2023 could be due to precautions and procedures undertaken after the horrific train accident in Odisha on 2 Jun 2023. Secondly, we note that the decline was on a high base as Jun 2022 cargo rose 19% yoy. 

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, passenger traffic in FY21/22 stood at 84%/60%, respectively, below FY20 (pre-Covid) levels. The sudden spare capacity on the rail network boosted rail cargo – FY22 rail cargo was 17% higher than in FY20. However, rail cargo in Jun 2023 was 21% higher than the 4QFY20 run rate, despite the normalization in passenger train operations.

EXIM (export-import) container cargo declined by 8.5% yoy (vs. 3.7%/ 9% yoy growth in 1QFY24/ 4QFY23, respectively).

Ports (Jun 2023): yoy decline in coal and container volume at major ports was partly due to the high base  

Jun 2023 cargo at major ports (MPs) + Adani Ports or APSEZ (ex-Gangavaram) grew 1% yoy (vs. a 5% yoy rise in 1QFY24).

Jun 2023 MP cargo was flat yoy (vs. a 2% yoy rise in 1QFY24). The flat volume yoy was on a high base as Jun 2022 MP cargo was up 12.4% yoy. Further, MP cargo in FY23 was 9.5% higher than in FY22.

While Cyclone Biparjoy occured in Jun 2023 (impacting the west coast), we believe this did not have a significant impact on west coast MPs. Cargo at west coast MPs grew 2.5% yoy, like the yoy growth in May 2023.  

Coal cargo at MPs fell 10% yoy as thermal coal declined by 7% yoy and coking coal fell 16% yoy. The decline was on a high base as Jun 2022 cargo rose 42% yoy. Further, cargo in FY23 was ~30% higher than in FY22. This was in line with our thesis (link to the report: Port sector report 11 Jun 2022).

Container cargo at MPs declined by 7% yoy and volume at JNPT (key container port among MPs) fell 8.5% yoy (vs. a 1.4% yoy growth in 1QFY24). Petroleum, oil and lubricants cargo rose 3% yoy.

APSEZ's Jun 2023 volume stood at 33.1mt (including Gangavaram). Its Jun 2023 volume rose 3% yoy and was 23% higher than the run rate in 2HFY23 (26.9mt).

Sector pulse: Railways and Ports – Jun 2023

Figure 1: Railway cargo volume – Jun 2023

SOURCE: MINISTRY OF RAILWAYS, INCRED RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS  

 

Figure 2: Comparison of Concor’s volume performance vs. that of Indian Railways

SOURCE: MINISTRY OF RAILWAYS, INCRED RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS  

 

Figure 3: Volume of major ports and Adani Ports – Jun 2023

SOURCE: INDIAN PORTS ASSOCIATION, INCRED RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS  


 

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