InCred Equities - Heidelberg Cement India Ltd

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	22,381	23,565	25,353	26,887
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	2,489	3,790	4,638	5,032
Net Profit (Rsm)	992	2,019	2,675	2,989
Core EPS (Rs)	4.4	8.9	11.8	13.2
Core EPS Growth	(60.7%)	103.6%	32.5%	11.7%
FD Core P/E (x)	48.45	23.80	17.96	16.07
DPS (Rs)	7.0	6.5	8.7	9.7
Dividend Yield	3.30%	3.09%	4.09%	4.57%
EV/EBITDA (x)	18.03	11.75	9.10	7.99
P/FCFE (x)	14.26	25.09	13.80	14.03
Net Gearing	(21.8%)	(23.2%)	(36.7%)	(47.2%)
P/BV (x)	3.29	3.17	3.03	2.89
ROE	6.6%	13.6%	17.3%	18.4%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	22,381	23,565	25,353	26,887
Gross Profit	22,381	23,565	25,353	26,887
Operating EBITDA	2,489	3,790	4,638	5,032
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,123)	(1,162)	(1,180)	(1,198)
Operating EBIT	1,365	2,628	3,458	3,835
Financial Income/(Expense)	(461)	(392)	(352)	(317)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	453	476	485	495
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	1,358	2,712	3,591	4,012
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	1,358	2,712	3,591	4,012
Taxation	(366)	(693)	(915)	(1,023)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	992	2,019	2,675	2,989
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	992	2,019	2,675	2,989
Recurring Net Profit	992	2,019	2,675	2,989
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	992	2,019	2,675	2,989

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	2,489	3,790	4,638	5,032
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(1,653)	(325)	476	88
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	453	476	485	495
Other Operating Cashflow	994	700	100	100
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(461)	(392)	(352)	(317)
Tax Paid	439	(693)	(915)	(1,023)
Cashflow From Operations	2,261	3,557	4,431	4,375
Capex	(275)	(750)	(650)	(600)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	1,718	(692)	100	50
Cash Flow From Investing	1,444	(1,442)	(550)	(550)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(336)	(200)	(400)	(400)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(42)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(1,586)	(1,483)	(1,966)	(2,196)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(702)	(300)	400	400
Cash Flow From Financing	(2,665)	(1,984)	(1,967)	(2,197)
Total Cash Generated	1,040	131	1,914	1,628
Free Cashflow To Equity	3,369	1,915	3,481	3,425
Free Cashflow To Firm	4,166	2,506	4,233	4,142

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	4,920	5,050	6,965	8,592
Total Debtors	311	387	417	442
Inventories	1,752	1,937	2,084	2,210
Total Other Current Assets	4,145	4,242	4,437	4,705
Total Current Assets	11,128	11,616	13,902	15,949
Fixed Assets	14,904	14,492	13,962	13,365
Total Investments	48	48	48	48
Intangible Assets	58	750	650	600
Total Other Non-Current Assets	508	508	508	508
Total Non-current Assets	15,519	15,798	15,168	14,521
Short-term Debt	630	630	630	630
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	2,630	2,483	2,666	2,805
Other Current Liabilities	5,241	5,420	6,085	6,453
Total Current Liabilities	8,500	8,533	9,380	9,888
Total Long-term Debt	1,108	908	508	108
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	2,424	2,824	3,324	3,824
Total Non-current Liabilities	3,533	3,733	3,833	3,933
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	12,033	12,265	13,212	13,820
Shareholders Equity	14,614	15,149	15,858	16,649
Minority Interests
Total Equity	14,614	15,149	15,858	16,649

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	(2.6%)	5.3%	7.6%	6.0%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(42.7%)	52.3%	22.4%	8.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	11.1%	16.1%	18.3%	18.7%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	14.04	15.50	25.71	34.66
BVPS (Rs)	64.48	66.84	69.97	73.46
Gross Interest Cover	2.96	6.71	9.81	12.09
Effective Tax Rate	27.0%	25.5%	25.5%	25.5%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	160.0%	73.5%	73.5%	73.5%
Accounts Receivables Days	5.80	5.41	5.79	5.83
Inventory Days	28.40	28.57	28.94	29.14
Accounts Payables Days	48.39	47.19	45.36	45.69
ROIC (%)	9.9%	18.2%	26.0%	30.5%
ROCE (%)	8.1%	15.9%	20.5%	22.3%
Return On Average Assets	5.3%	8.9%	10.7%	11.1%

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg