InCred Equities - Ambuja Cements Ltd

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	342,184	410,641	472,812	522,694
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	51,443	75,154	96,060	112,857
Net Profit (Rsm)	41,674	36,311	48,126	57,850
Core EPS (Rs)	14.8	14.7	19.5	23.5
Core EPS Growth	(8.4%)	(0.6%)	32.5%	20.2%
FD Core P/E (x)	31.35	38.02	28.69	23.87
DPS (Rs)	2.0	3.5	4.7	5.6
Dividend Yield	0.36%	0.63%	0.84%	1.01%
EV/EBITDA (x)	24.20	18.18	14.43	12.25
P/FCFE (x)	(20.21)	(21.94)	(31.45)	(62.16)
Net Gearing	(9.6%)	(2.2%)	0.7%	0.2%
P/BV (x)	2.16	2.06	1.92	1.79
ROE	6.0%	5.5%	6.9%	7.8%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	342,184	410,641	472,812	522,694
Gross Profit	342,184	410,641	472,812	522,694
Operating EBITDA	51,443	75,154	96,060	112,857
Depreciation And Amortisation	(24,783)	(30,979)	(34,697)	(38,166)
Operating EBIT	26,660	44,175	61,364	74,691
Financial Income/(Expense)	(2,159)	(2,203)	(2,247)	(2,292)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	26,543	6,636	5,309	5,043
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	51,043	48,608	64,426	77,442
Exceptional Items	8,181
Pre-tax Profit	59,224	48,608	64,426	77,442
Taxation	(7,640)	(12,298)	(16,299)	(19,593)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	51,584	36,311	48,126	57,850
Minority Interests	(9,910)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	41,674	36,311	48,126	57,850
Recurring Net Profit	34,549	36,311	48,126	57,850
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	34,549	36,311	48,126	57,850

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	51,443	75,154	96,060	112,857
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(18,036)	(7,946)	4,547	2,048
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	26,543	6,636	5,309	5,043
Other Operating Cashflow	(27,777)	(28,777)	(29,777)	(30,777)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,159)	(2,203)	(2,247)	(2,292)
Tax Paid	(7,640)	(12,298)	(16,299)	(19,593)
Cashflow From Operations	22,374	30,567	57,594	67,287
Capex	(85,915)	(102,500)	(106,500)	(91,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	10,604	(1,000)	0
Cash Flow From Investing	(75,311)	(103,500)	(106,500)	(91,500)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(11,711)	10,000	5,000	2,000
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	83,391	4,999	9,999	9,999
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(3,971)	(9,049)	(11,467)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(11,788)	30,111	30,694	17,893
Cash Flow From Financing	55,920	36,061	34,225	29,892
Total Cash Generated	2,983	(36,872)	(14,681)	5,679
Free Cashflow To Equity	(64,648)	(62,933)	(43,906)	(22,213)
Free Cashflow To Firm	(50,778)	(70,730)	(46,660)	(21,921)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	61,799	24,927	10,246	15,925
Total Debtors	15,903	16,876	19,431	21,481
Inventories	42,480	47,252	53,110	58,714
Total Other Current Assets	76,990	83,771	96,454	104,016
Total Current Assets	197,172	172,825	179,240	200,135
Fixed Assets	411,130	496,798	568,102	620,935
Total Investments	37,556	37,556	37,556	37,556
Intangible Assets	98,204	99,204	99,204	99,204
Total Other Non-Current Assets	65,393	51,245	51,745	52,245
Total Non-current Assets	612,283	684,803	756,607	809,940
Short-term Debt	124	124	124	124
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	27,595	27,928	31,436	34,233
Other Current Liabilities	110,734	114,980	137,116	151,581
Total Current Liabilities	138,453	143,032	168,675	185,939
Total Long-term Debt	144	10,144	15,144	17,144
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	32,743	33,743	34,743	35,743
Total Non-current Liabilities	32,887	43,887	49,887	52,887
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	171,340	186,919	218,563	238,826
Shareholders Equity	638,114	670,709	717,284	771,249
Minority Interests
Total Equity	638,114	670,709	717,284	771,249

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	3.2%	20.0%	15.1%	10.5%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(19.6%)	46.1%	27.8%	17.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	15.0%	18.3%	20.3%	21.6%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	24.98	5.95	(2.04)	(0.55)
BVPS (Rs)	259.07	272.30	291.21	313.12
Gross Interest Cover	12.35	20.06	27.31	32.59
Effective Tax Rate	12.9%	25.3%	25.3%	25.3%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	14.7%	24.0%	24.0%	24.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	14.83	14.57	14.01	14.28
Inventory Days	41.90	39.88	38.74	39.04
Accounts Payables Days	35.93	30.20	28.76	29.24
ROIC (%)	4.7%	6.8%	8.5%	9.7%
ROCE (%)	4.6%	6.7%	8.7%	9.8%
Return On Average Assets	6.2%	4.6%	5.6%	6.2%

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg