InCred Equities - Granules India Ltd

	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue (Rsm)	32,375	35,460	40,945	47,116
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	8,552	6,762	9,622	11,214
Net Profit (Rsm)	5,495	3,947	6,012	7,149
Core EPS (Rs)	21.9	15.9	24.3	28.9
Core EPS Growth	76.6%	(27.2%)	52.3%	18.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	25.24	34.68	22.77	19.15
DPS (Rs)	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3
Dividend Yield	0.23%	0.23%	0.23%	0.23%
EV/EBITDA (x)	16.89	20.99	14.57	12.08
P/FCFE (x)	66.43	152.18	68.81	26.49
Net Gearing	26.4%	20.0%	10.7%	(3.9%)
P/BV (x)	6.30	5.40	4.41	3.61
ROE	27.4%	16.8%	21.3%	20.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Net Revenues	32,375	35,460	40,945	47,116
Gross Profit	18,463	18,085	21,701	25,113
Operating EBITDA	8,552	6,762	9,622	11,214
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,515)	(1,661)	(1,856)	(1,986)
Operating EBIT	7,038	5,102	7,766	9,228
Financial Income/(Expense)	(263)	(258)	(255)	(255)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	269	282	296	311
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	7,044	5,126	7,808	9,284
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	7,044	5,126	7,808	9,284
Taxation	(1,549)	(1,179)	(1,796)	(2,135)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	5,495	3,947	6,012	7,149
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	5,495	3,947	6,012	7,149
Recurring Net Profit	5,495	3,947	6,012	7,149
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	5,495	3,947	6,012	7,149

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
EBITDA	8,552	6,762	9,622	11,214
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(1,828)	(631)	(2,827)	(2,012)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(263)	(258)	(255)	(255)
Tax Paid	(1,954)	(1,179)	(1,796)	(2,135)
Cashflow From Operations	4,508	4,694	4,744	6,811
Capex	(2,244)	(3,946)	(2,951)	(1,956)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	269	282	296	311
Cash Flow From Investing	(1,975)	(3,663)	(2,655)	(1,645)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(446)	(131)	(100)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased	(1,400)
Dividends Paid	(310)	(310)	(310)	(310)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(508)	(38)	(46)	(55)
Cash Flow From Financing	(2,663)	(479)	(455)	(364)
Total Cash Generated	(129)	552	1,634	4,802
Free Cashflow To Equity	2,088	899	1,989	5,167
Free Cashflow To Firm	2,796	1,289	2,344	5,422

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Cash And Equivalents	2,710	3,262	4,896	9,698
Total Debtors	7,654	8,258	9,535	10,972
Inventories	7,822	8,744	9,535	10,972
Total Other Current Assets	1,784	1,429	2,300	2,307
Total Current Assets	19,970	21,692	26,266	33,950
Fixed Assets	15,168	17,507	18,652	18,666
Total Investments	190	228	273	328
Intangible Assets	543	489	440	396
Total Other Non-Current Assets	1,264	1,264	1,264	1,264
Total Non-current Assets	17,164	19,487	20,629	20,654
Short-term Debt	4,093	5,393	5,793	6,293
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	5,410	5,950	6,063	6,932
Other Current Liabilities	1,274	1,274	1,274	1,274
Total Current Liabilities	10,777	12,617	13,130	14,499
Total Long-term Debt	4,365	2,934	2,434	1,934
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	4,365	2,934	2,434	1,934
Total Provisions	259	259	259	259
Total Liabilities	15,402	15,810	15,823	16,692
Shareholders Equity	21,733	25,370	31,072	37,912
Minority Interests
Total Equity	21,733	25,370	31,072	37,912

	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue Growth	24.6%	9.5%	15.5%	15.1%
Operating EBITDA Growth	62.8%	(20.9%)	42.3%	16.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	26.4%	19.1%	23.5%	23.8%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(23.21)	(20.45)	(13.45)	5.94
BVPS (Rs)	87.75	102.43	125.46	153.07
Gross Interest Cover	26.78	19.76	30.45	36.19
Effective Tax Rate	22.0%	23.0%	23.0%	23.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	4.4%	6.0%	4.0%	3.3%
Accounts Receivables Days	84.59	81.89	79.31	79.43
Inventory Days	160.11	173.99	173.34	170.09
Accounts Payables Days	127.38	119.33	113.93	107.79
ROIC (%)	28.1%	18.5%	25.5%	26.8%
ROCE (%)	24.3%	16.0%	21.3%	21.6%
Return On Average Assets	20.8%	13.7%	18.3%	18.8%

(91) 22 4161 1552 praful.bohra@incredresearch.com

Market Data

Source: Bloomberg